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Descriptions

  • Based on the 2016 Stock Assessment
  • Model Type: Stock Synthesis 3
  • Time Step: 1 year
  • Start Projection: 2016-01-01
  • Stock Assessment Frequency: 3 years
  • Projection for 20 years (a generation)
  • Uncertainty is estimated from 100 iterations.
  • Observational error for initial abundance: CV 0.2.
  • Observational error for initial distribution: 1000 effective sample size
  • No mixing for adults between East and West stocks.
  • The current natural mortality follows the Lorenzen curve.
  • Fraction before spawning: 0.5 year
  • Observational error for initial recruitment ratio between East Stock and the total Gulf: 1000 effective sample size
  • One age-length key for both the East & West Stocks
    (The age-length key is inputs of the stock assessment model).
  • Biological Reference Points:
       SSBMSY  1230000000000000 eggs
       FMSY  0.0588
  • Fishery Status: Green
  • CVs for Release Mortality (Log-normal Distribution): 0.05
  • Use default seeds in the format of a csv file.

Constant Natural Mortality Over Years

CV for East Stock
(Log-normal Dist.)
CV for West Stock
(Log-normal Dist.)
% to East Stock
% to West Stock
Estimate Recruitment from Historical Data (1000s)
Include Years Before 1984
%
Exclude Years Before 1984
%
From Modified Beverton-Holt Model estimated in the latest stock assessment
CV for Implementation Uncertainty

Harvest Control Rule

Allocation among Sectors

%
%

Allocation among Recreational Components

%
%
Allocation among Private Angling Fleets

(Only used for demonstrating results)

%
%
Allocation among Federal For-hire Fleets

(Only used for demonstrating results)

%
%

Probability of Overfishing (OFL -> ABC)

%

Acceptable Catch Target (ACT) Buffer

%
%
%

Regulations

Minimum Legal Size for Commercial Fleets
inch
Minimum Legal Size for Recreational Fleets
inch
For Federal For-hire Fleets
# of fish per bag
For Private Angling Fleets
# of fish per bag

Release Mortality

Recreational Stock1 Open
%
Recreational Stock1 Closed
%
Recreational Stock2 Open
%
Recreational Stock2 Closed
%
Commercial Vertical Line Stock1 Open
%
Commercial Stock1 Closed
%
Commercial Vertical Line Stock2 Open
%
Commercial Stock2 Closed
%
Commercial Long Line Stock1 Open
%
Commercial Long Line Stock2 Open
%

Recreational Sector Options for ACT

Catch Rate

2 / 2  = 1.0 fish per bag
Base Federal For-hire
Catch Rate
lb/day
Est. Federal For-hire
Catch Rate
lb/day
2 / 2  = 1.0 fish per bag
Base AL Private Angling
Catch Rate
lb/day
Est. AL Private Angling
Catch Rate
lb/day
Base FL Private Angling
Catch Rate
lb/day
Est. FL Private Angling
Catch Rate
lb/day
Base LA Private Angling
Catch Rate
lb/day
Est. LA Private Angling
Catch Rate
lb/day
Base MS Private Angling
Catch Rate
lb/day
Est. MS Private Angling
Catch Rate
lb/day
Base MS For-hire
Catch Rate
lb/day
Est. MS For-hire
Catch Rate
lb/day
Base TX Private Angling
Catch Rate in Federal Water
lb/day
Est. TX Private Angling
Catch Rate in Federal Water
lb/day
Base TX Private Angling
Catch Rate in State Water
lb/day
Est. TX Private Angling
Catch Rate in State Water
lb/day

Season Length

Season Length is Determined by ACT
ACT is Determined by Inputs - No Buffers
Federal For-hire Season Length
days
MS For-hire Season Length
days
TX Private Angling Season Length in State Water
days
Season Lengths are Determined by ACT
ACT is Determined by Inputs - No Buffers
AL Private Angling Season Length
days
FL Private Angling Season Length
days
LA Private Angling Season Length
days
MS Private Angling Season Length
days
TX Private Angling Season Length in Federal Water
days

Payback & Carryover

No Payback
Before 2032, under the rebuilding plan; after 2032, based on the fishery status. The exceeded catch will be deducted from the next year.
No Carryover
Carryover to the same sector, component, or state next year, but make sure the actual landing doesn't exceed 95% of the OFL.
Carryover to the same sector, component, or state next year, but make sure the actual landing doesnt exceed 50% of the difference between ABC and OFL.

Private Angling Quota among States

AL
%
FL
%
LA
%
MS
%
TX
%

The dynamics of the median total catch (upper) and the median total spawning stock biomass (SSB; lower) during the projection period.

The dynamics of the median catches for the Commercial Sector, the For-hire Component, and the Private Angling Component during the projection period.

The dynamics of the median spawning stock biomass (SSB) in the East Gulf and West Gulf during the projection period.

The dynamics of the median Commercial catches in the East Gulf and West Gulf during the projection period.

The dynamics of the median For-hire catches in the East Gulf and West Gulf during the projection period.

The dynamics of the median Private Angling catches in the East Gulf and West Gulf during the projection period.

The estimated median lengths of the fishing seasons for the Federal For-hire component and the variations during the projection period.

Note: The season length is estimated based on the quota and the average catch rate in 2018.

The estimated median season lengths for the Private Angling component in each state during the projection period.

Note: The season length is estimated based on the quota and the average catch rate in 2018.

Kobe plot with median fishing mortality ratio (relative to FSPR26%) and median spawning biomass ratio (relative to SSBSPR26%). The Kobe plot is divided into four panels: The red panel (upper left) corresponds to the “overfished and overfishing phase” area. The light green panel (lower right) is the “no risk” area. The orange panel (lower left) corresponds to the “overfished, but not overfishing” area. The olive-green panel (upper right) is the “overfishing, but no overfished” area. This Kobe plot characterizes the mediate situations. Blue circles represent the annual trajectory of the Gulf of Mexico red snapper fishery over time.

The dynamics of the median recruitment in the East Gulf and West Gulf during the projection period.


The dynamics of the median Commercial catch and the variation during the projection period.

The dynamics of the median Recreational catch and the variation during the projection period.

The dynamics of the median For-hire catch and the variation during the projection period.

The dynamics of the median Private Angling catch and the variation during the projection period.

The dynamics of the median fishing mortality and the variation during the projection period.

The dynamics of the median spawning stock biomass (SSB) in the East Gulf and the variation during the projection period.

The dynamics of the median spawning stock biomass (SSB) in the West Gulf and the variation during the projection period.

The dynamics of the median total spawning stock biomass (SSB) and the variation during the projection period.

Estimated median Private Angling catch in the Alabama State (AL) and the variation during the projection period.

Estimated median Private Angling season length in the Alabama State (AL) and the variation during the projection period.

Note: The season length is estimated based on the quota and the average catch rate in 2018.

Estimated median Private Angling catch in the Florida State (FL) and the variation during the projection period.

Estimated median Private Angling season length in the Florida State (FL) and the variation during the projection period.

Note: The season length is estimated based on the quota and the average catch rate in 2018.

Estimated median Private Angling catch in the Louisiana State (LA) and the variation during the projection period.

Estimated median Private Angling season length in the Louisiana State (LA) and the variation during the projection period.

Note: The season length is estimated based on the quota and the average catch rate in 2018.

Estimated median Private Angling catch in the Mississippi State (MS) and the variation during the projection period.

Estimated median Private Angling season length in the Mississippi State (MS) and the variation during the projection period.

Note: The season length is estimated based on the quota and the average catch rate in 2018.

Estimated median Private Angling catch in the Texas State (TX) and the variation during the projection period.

Estimated median Private Angling season length in the Texas State (TX) and the variation during the projection period.

Note: The season length is estimated based on the quota and the average catch rate in 2018.