Output Example of a Base Case Scenario

Essential Figures:

  1. Total Catch & Total SSB
  2. Catch: Commercial, For-hire, Private Angling
  3. SSB: East & West
  4. Commercial Catch: East & West
  5. For-hire Catch: East & West
  6. Private Angling Catch: East & West
  7. Federal For-hire Season Length
  8. State Private Angling Season Length
  9. Kobe Plot
  10. Recruitment: East & West

Total Catch & Total SSB

The dynamics of the median total catch (upper) and the median total spawning stock biomass (SSB; lower) during the projection period.

Catch: Commercial, For-hire, Private Angling

The dynamics of the median catches for the Commercial Sector, the For-hire Component, and the Private Angling Component during the projection period.

SSB: East & West

The dynamics of the median spawning stock biomass (SSB) in the East Gulf and West Gulf during the projection period.

Commercial Catch: East & West

The dynamics of the median Commercial catches in the East Gulf and West Gulf during the projection period.

For-hire Catch: East & West

The dynamics of the median For-hire catches in the East Gulf and West Gulf during the projection period.

Private Angling Catch Catch: East & West

The dynamics of the median Private Angling catches in the East Gulf and West Gulf during the projection period.

Federal For-hire Season Length

The estimated median lengths of the fishing seasons for the Federal For-hire component and the variations during the projection period.

Note: The season length is estimated based on the quota and the average catch rate in 2018.

State Private Angling Season Length

The estimated median season lengths for the Private Angling component in each state during the projection period.

Note: The season length is estimated based on the quota and the average catch rate in 2018.

Kobe Plot

Kobe plot with median fishing mortality ratio (relative to FSPR26%) and median spawning biomass ratio (relative to SSBSPR26%). The Kobe plot is divided into four panels: The red panel (upper left) corresponds to the “overfished and overfishing phase” area. The light green panel (lower right) is the “no risk” area. The orange panel (lower left) corresponds to the “overfished, but not overfishing” area. The olive-green panel (upper right) is the “overfishing, but no overfished” area. This Kobe plot characterizes the mediate situations. Blue circles represent the annual trajectory of the Gulf of Mexico red snapper fishery over time.

Recruitment: East & West

The dynamics of the median recruitment in the East Gulf and West Gulf during the projection period.

Essential Inputs

  • Based on the 2016 Stock Assessment
  • Model Type: Stock Synthesis 3
  • Time Step: 1 year
  • Start Projection: 2016-01-01
  • Projection for 20 years (a generation)
  • Uncertainty is estimated from 100 iterations.
  • Observational error for initial abundance: CV=0.2
  • Observational error for initial distribution: 1000 effective sample size
  • No mixing for adults between East and West stocks
  • The current natural mortality follows the Lorenzen curve
  • Fraction before spawning: 0.5 year
  • Observational error for recruitment ratio between East and West Stocks: 1000 effective sample size
  • One age-length key for both the East & West Stocks
    (The age-length key is inputs of the stock assessment model)
  • Biological Reference Points:
       SSBMSY  1230 trillion eggs
       FMSY  0.0588
  • Fishery Status: Green
  • CVs for Release Mortality (Log-normal Distribution): 0.05
  • Use default seeds in the format of a csv file
  • The recruitment is estimated from the Beverton-Holt model, from the latest stock assessment
  • The natural mortality is estimated from the latest stock assessment
  • Constant-F harvest control rule with F is 75% of the FMSY
  • The Recreational Sector takes 49% of the total catch quota
  • The Federal For-hire Component takes 42.3% of the recreational catch
  • The Probability of Overfishing is set at 40%
  • Commercial ACT buffer: 0%, Federal For-hire ACT buffer: 9%; Private angling ACT buffer: 20%
  • Current size and bag limit regulations are adopted
  • The Release mortality is estimated from the latest stock assessment
  • Catch rates are estimated according to the 2018-2019 observations
  • The Penalty will be applied if the actual landing exceeds ACT, but no carryover
  • Private angling quota among States are: AL 26.3%, FL 44.82%, LA 19.12%, MS 3.55% and TX 6.21%

If you want to test your own MSE scenario, please create.

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You can also evaluate the effect of using different allocations for Commercial and Recreational Sectors, click here.

You can also evaluate the effect of using different legal sizes, click here.

Other Detailed Figures:

  1. Commercial Catch
  2. Recreational Catch
  3. For-hire Catch
  4. Private Angling Catch
  5. General Fishing Mortality
  6. SSB East
  7. SSB West
  8. Total SSB
  9. AL Private Angling Catch
  10. AL Private Angling Season Length
  11. FL Private Angling Catch
  12. FL Private Angling Season Length
  13. LA Private Angling Catch
  14. LA Private Angling Season Length
  15. MS Private Angling Catch
  16. MS Private Angling Sesaon Length
  17. TX Private Angling Catch in Federal Water
  18. TX Private Angling Season Length in Federal Water

Commercial Catch

The dynamics of the median Commercial catch and the variation during the projection period.

Recreational Catch

The dynamics of the median Recreational catch and the variation during the projection period.

For-hire Catch

The dynamics of the median For-hire catch and the variation during the projection period.

Private Angling Catch

The dynamics of the median Private Angling catch and the variation during the projection period.

General Fishing Mortality

The dynamics of the median fishing mortality and the variation during the projection period.

SSB East

The dynamics of the median spawning stock biomass (SSB) in the East Gulf and the variation during the projection period.

SSB West

The dynamics of the median spawning stock biomass (SSB) in the West Gulf and the variation during the projection period.

Total SSB

The dynamics of the median total spawning stock biomass (SSB) and the variation during the projection period.

AL Private Angling Catch

Estimated median Private Angling catch in the Alabama State (AL) and the variation during the projection period.

AL Private Angling Season Length

Estimated median Private Angling season length in the Alabama State (AL) and the variation during the projection period.

Note: The season length is estimated based on the quota and the average catch rate in 2018.

FL Private Angling Catch

Estimated median Private Angling catch in the Florida State (FL) and the variation during the projection period.

FL Private Angling Season Length

Estimated median Private Angling season length in the Florida State (FL) and the variation during the projection period.

Note: The season length is estimated based on the quota and the average catch rate in 2018.

LA Private Angling Catch

Estimated median Private Angling catch in the Louisiana State (LA) and the variation during the projection period.

LA Private Angling Season Length

Estimated median Private Angling season length in the Louisiana State (LA) and the variation during the projection period.

Note: The season length is estimated based on the quota and the average catch rate in 2018.

MS Private Angling Catch

Estimated median Private Angling catch in the Mississippi State (MS) and the variation during the projection period.

MS Private Angling Season Length

Estimated median Private Angling season length in the Mississippi State (MS) and the variation during the projection period.

Note: The season length is estimated based on the quota and the average catch rate in 2018.

TX Private Angling Catch in Federal Water

Estimated median Private Angling catch in the Texas State (TX) and the variation during the projection period.

TX Private Angling Season Length in Federal Water

Estimated median Private Angling season length in the Texas State (TX) and the variation during the projection period.

Note: The season length is estimated based on the quota and the average catch rate in 2018.