Output MSE Comparison Examples under Various Commercial Legal Size Regulations

Essential Figures:

Section 1: Basic Comparison

  1. Total Catch
  2. Total SSB
  3. Catch for 20-Year Management
  4. Annual Catch for 20-Year Management
  5. Terminal SSB after 20-Year Management
  6. Lowest SSB during 20-Year Management
  7. Percentage to Green 20-Year Management
  8. General Performance Measures 20-Year Management
  9. Open Season Dead Discards 20-Year Management
  10. Open Season Dead Discards Annual Variation, 20-Year Management

Total Catch

The comparison of the median total catches during the projection period.

Total SSB

The comparison of the median total spawning stock biomass (SSB) during the projection period.

Catch for 20-Year Management

The comparison of the 20-year catches.

Annual Catch Variations for 20-Year Management

The comparison of the 20-year annual catch variations.

Note: CV means Coefficient of Variation.

Terminal SSB during 20-Year Management

The comparison of the spawning stock biomass after the management (Terminal SSB).

Lowest SSB during 20-Year Management

The comparison of the lowest spawning stock biomass during the management period (Lowest SSB).

Percentage to Green 20-Year Management

The comparison of the median percentage of time that the fishery achieves the “Green” stock status during the management period.

Note: “Green” indicates the desired stock status in the long term.

General Performance Measures 20-Year Management

The comparison of the general performance measures during the 20-Year Management.

Open Season Dead Discards 20-Year Management

The comparison of the 20-year open season dead discards.

Open Season Dead Discards Annual Variation, 20-Year Management

The comparison of the 20-year open season dead discards annual variations.

Note: CV means Coefficient of Variation.

Essential Inputs

Legal Size for Commercial Fisheries

Scenario Comm 13in — legal size = 13 inch

Scenario Comm 13.5in — legal size = 13.5 inch

Scenario Comm 14in — legal size = 14 inch

Scenario Comm 14.5in — legal size = 14.5 inch

Scenario Comm 15in — legal size = 15 inch

  • Based on the 2016 Stock Assessment
  • Model Type: Stock Synthesis 3
  • Time Step: 1 year
  • Start Projection: 2016-01-01
  • Projection for 20 years (a generation)
  • Uncertainty is estimated from 100 iterations
  • Observational error for initial abundance: CV=0.2
  • Observational error for initial distribution: 1000 effective sample size
  • No mixing for adults between East and West stocks
  • The current natural mortality follows the Lorenzen curve
  • Fraction before spawning: 0.5 year
  • Observational error for recruitment ratio between East and West Stocks: 1000 effective sample size
  • One age-length key for both the East & West Stocks
    (The age-length key is inputs of the stock assessment model)
  • Biological Reference Points:
       SSBMSY  1230 trillion eggs
       FMSY  0.0588
  • Fishery Status: Green
  • CVs for Release Mortality (Log-normal Distribution): 0.05
  • Use default seeds in the format of a csv file
  • The recruitment is estimated from the Beverton-Holt model, from the latest stock assessment
  • The natural mortality is estimated from the latest stock assessment
  • Constant-F harvest control rule with F is 75% of the FMSY
  • The Recreational Sector takes 49% of the total catch quota
  • The Federal For-hire Component takes 42.3% of the recreational catch
  • The Probability of Overfishing is set at 40%
  • Commercial ACT buffer: 0%, Federal For-hire ACT buffer: 9%; Private angling ACT buffer: 20%
  • Current recreational legal size and bag limit regulations are adopted
  • The Release mortality is estimated from the latest stock assessment
  • Catch rates are estimated according to the 2018-2019 observations
  • The Penalty will be applied if the actual landing exceeds ACT, but no carryover
  • Private angling quota among States are: AL 26.3%, FL 44.82%, LA 19.12%, MS 3.55% and TX 6.21%

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Other Detailed Figures:

Section 2: Sector Comparison

  1. Commercial Catch
  2. For-hire Catch
  3. Private Angling Catch
  4. Total SSB, Ave of First 5-Year
  5. Total SSB, Ave of Last 5-Year
  6. Catches for Federal For-hire and Private Angling Sectors in the First and Last 5 Years
  7. State Private Angling Catch, Ave of First 5-Year
  8. State Private Angling Catch, Ave of Last 5-Year
  9. State Private Angling Season Length, Ave of First 5-Year
  10. State Private Angling Season Length, Ave of Last 5-Year
  11. Total Catch, Ave of First 5-Year
  12. Total Catch, Ave of Last 5-Year
  13. Commercial Dead Discards
  14. Recreational Dead Discards

Commercial Catch

The comparison of the median Commercial catches during the projection period.

For-hire Catch

The comparison of the median For-hire catches during the projection period.

Private Angling Catch

The comparison of the median Private Angling catches during the projection period.

Total SSB, Ave of First 5-Year

The comparison of the average spawning stock biomass (SSB) in the first 5 years.

Total SSB, Ave of Last 5-Year

The comparison of the average spawning stock biomass (SSB) in the last 5 years of the 20-year management period.

Catches for Federal For-hire and Private Angling Sectors in the First and Last 5 Years

The comparison of the median catches for Federal For-hire and Private Angling Sectors in the first and last 5 years of the 20-year management period.

State Private Angling Catch, Ave of First 5-Year

The comparison of the median states’ Private Angling catches in the first 5 years.

State Private Angling Catch, Ave of Last 5-Year

The comparison of the median states’ Private Angling catches in the last 5 years of the 20-year management period.

State Private Angling Season Length, Ave of First 5-Year

The comparison of the median states’ Private Angling season lengths in the first 5 years.

Note: The season length is estimated based on the quota and the average catch rate in 2018.

State Private Angling Season Length, Ave of Last 5-Year

The comparison of the median states’ Private Angling season lengths in the last 5 years of the 20-year management period.

Note: The season length is estimated based on the quota and the average catch rate in 2018.

Total Catch, Ave of First 5-Year

The comparison of the total catches in the first 5 years.

Total Catch, Ave of Last 5-Year

The comparison of the total catches in the last 5 years of the 20-year management period.

Commercial Dead Discards

The comparison of the median commercial dead discards during the projection period.

Recreational Dead Discards

The comparison of the median recreational dead discards during the projection period.

Section 3: Comparison between and within Sectors

  1. Performance Measures within the Commercial Sector
  2. Performance Measures within the Recreational Sector

Performance Measures within the Commercial Sector

The comparison of the performance measures within the Commercial Sector during the 20-Year Management.

Performance Measures within the Recreational Sector

The comparison of the performance measures within the Recreational Sector during the 20-Year Management